The leading Marathi daily in Maharashtra, Maharashtra Times, carried an article which said the newly elected BJP president has now set his eyes on Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha. It specifically said that Shah has asked his leaders to capture Mumbai from the hands of Shiv Sena. It is because the Sena controls Mumbai, that they have a huge base in the state. If BJP gets more seats from the maximum city, it won't be the shadow party in the alliance which it has been since the 1989. The article further said that if Sena won't accept the demands of BJP for more seats, then the party should be ready to fight 200 seats on it's own with 88 distributed among the allied parties other than Sena.
Well at this juncture of time, Shah is at luxury to set such targets considering the backing of Modi wave in which the PM himself will be holding 10 rallies across the state. The support they may recieve from the business community in the city under the Modi banner. But the BJP president forgets that there is huge difference in pattern of voting in the Vidhan Sabha polls and Lok Sabha polls. Lets take a look at some of the issues which will be hindrance in Amit Shah's dream project.
Marathi Asmita
After his first rally in UP post Lok Sabha election and as a BJP president, Shah urged his workers not to get complacent and look for 2/3rd majority in the state polls. But the equations of UP will not work in Maharashtra. In UP, even today elections are polarised in order to gain votes of particular castes. This too is their in Maharashtra but ever since the 90s of the finest orators from the state and Shiv Sena Pramukh Balasaheb Thackeray had brought everyone under one banner, "Marathi in the state and Hindu in the country." The same legacy is take forward by Uddhav and Raj led MNS. Just like the Gujarati asmita which made Narendra Modi popular in his state which led to his alleviation upto the PM candidate for his party, BJP will also have to take care of Marathi Asmita. But none of their present leadership is ever heard speaking of the same. That is advantage Sena.
Modi, not BJP
In the LS polls people together voted for Narendra Modi and not for BJP. The ideological mentor of BJP, RSS, which was formed in Nagpur, the MP from the city belonged to the Congress(I) in 2009. This shows that the party lacked even in it's strong hold pre Modi. Under the NaMo banner the NDA won 43 out of the 48 seats from the state in 2014, including Nagpur. The votes were for a strong leader, the vacuum which was created by the decade long UPA regime. Even the Raj Thackeray led MNS voters chose BJP as his party fought election on just 10 seats and in them he mostly campaigned, indirectly, for Modi. So it was all about the Modi factor and not BJP.
Karyakartas
This is the biggest disadvantage of BJP in the state compared to Shiv Sena. It lacks a strong ground force. BJP karyalaya is rarely existent in many parts of the city but you will find a Shiv Sena shakha in every corner of the city. Balasaheb Thackeray had created a huge ground level army under his command, which Uddhav later inherited. Even in the recent LS polls, BJP needed the RSS karykartas to do the job of the party. Recently the SarSanghaChalak of RSS, Dr. Mohan ji Bhagwat said that Sangh may not be involved actively in the state poll campaign might create shortage of infantry for Shah.
Mumbai Marathi Mansachich
The Congress(I) - NCP government had said that Marathi manoos in now a minority in the state capital. Many new residential complexes which are coming up, specifically ban non vegetarian's from booking a flat, even if they can afford the same. A community is given preference over others. And all these are majority BJP sympathisers. This will work against the Team Shah in the state election. Shiv Sena was born in the heart of the city in Dadar for the Marathi Manoos. The same sons of soil agenda is carried forward also by the Raj Thackeray led MNS. Hence these things can lead to division of votes which will have effect on Shah's capture Mumbai dream.
Marathi Speakers
Of the total 6 MPs from the maximum city, BJP fought and won on 3 seats. But only one of them is Marathi. Other than Modi, BJP doesn't have any powerful orator for their campaign. After Pramod Mahajan, the party couldn't produce a strong leader from the state. On the other hand even Uddhav is not so great like his father Balasaheb Thackeray. But still the party which has attracted maximum crowds for it's rallies since it's formation, Sena will have huge power packed campaign with old horses groomed by Balasaheb himself, will be out for addressing rallies alongside party chief Uddhav. Also Modi will be addressing all his rallies in Hindi, leaving 2-3 lines in Marathi, which may not work much in the parties favour like it did in case of General Elections. As against all of them, Raj Thackeray is the powerful orator in the state today, even powerful than Modi. He attracts huge crowds on his own like his uncle. So,Team Shah will suffer due to shortage of strong speakers.
Strong MNS
MNS supported the BJP's PM candidate during the LS polls. It also asked it's voters to vote for Late Gopinath Munde who had asked his help in the election. Raj Thackeray didn't succumb to the demands of NCP leader Dhanajay Munde to stage a candidate against Gopinath Munde. The party went into the General Election without it's official manifesto. But inspite of the defeat the rally it held by MNS Chief at Sion to show muscle, where Raj Thackeray declared himself the CM candidate of the party. It gave a huge boost to his party's cadre. Also the most discussed Blue Print for the state is stated to be released by him later this month. Even if Uddhav was made the political heir of Shiv Sena, everyone knew then it was Raj who was favorite for the party's top post. NCP chief Sharad Pawar had also warned his workers not to take Raj lightly as he has created the party on his own power and not received it as inheritance. So Raj Thackeray will be the biggest hindrance in the Team Shah's dream project to conquer Mumbai.
Considering these things, out of the many, it is not feasible for Team Shah to disturb the alliance at this juncture when the model code of conduct will begin in few days time. Even if the current surveys give BJP alone a full mandate, the campaigning is yet to begin. The party can ask for more seats but should not turn down it's own ally's. This might create a negative image which will only benefit current the ruling power in the state. Hope the sources in the articles are proven to be fake and the Mahayuti stays intact. Else it will be a suicide mission for the BJP to go against it's oldest partner.
-SR
Well at this juncture of time, Shah is at luxury to set such targets considering the backing of Modi wave in which the PM himself will be holding 10 rallies across the state. The support they may recieve from the business community in the city under the Modi banner. But the BJP president forgets that there is huge difference in pattern of voting in the Vidhan Sabha polls and Lok Sabha polls. Lets take a look at some of the issues which will be hindrance in Amit Shah's dream project.
Marathi Asmita
After his first rally in UP post Lok Sabha election and as a BJP president, Shah urged his workers not to get complacent and look for 2/3rd majority in the state polls. But the equations of UP will not work in Maharashtra. In UP, even today elections are polarised in order to gain votes of particular castes. This too is their in Maharashtra but ever since the 90s of the finest orators from the state and Shiv Sena Pramukh Balasaheb Thackeray had brought everyone under one banner, "Marathi in the state and Hindu in the country." The same legacy is take forward by Uddhav and Raj led MNS. Just like the Gujarati asmita which made Narendra Modi popular in his state which led to his alleviation upto the PM candidate for his party, BJP will also have to take care of Marathi Asmita. But none of their present leadership is ever heard speaking of the same. That is advantage Sena.
Modi, not BJP
In the LS polls people together voted for Narendra Modi and not for BJP. The ideological mentor of BJP, RSS, which was formed in Nagpur, the MP from the city belonged to the Congress(I) in 2009. This shows that the party lacked even in it's strong hold pre Modi. Under the NaMo banner the NDA won 43 out of the 48 seats from the state in 2014, including Nagpur. The votes were for a strong leader, the vacuum which was created by the decade long UPA regime. Even the Raj Thackeray led MNS voters chose BJP as his party fought election on just 10 seats and in them he mostly campaigned, indirectly, for Modi. So it was all about the Modi factor and not BJP.
Karyakartas
This is the biggest disadvantage of BJP in the state compared to Shiv Sena. It lacks a strong ground force. BJP karyalaya is rarely existent in many parts of the city but you will find a Shiv Sena shakha in every corner of the city. Balasaheb Thackeray had created a huge ground level army under his command, which Uddhav later inherited. Even in the recent LS polls, BJP needed the RSS karykartas to do the job of the party. Recently the SarSanghaChalak of RSS, Dr. Mohan ji Bhagwat said that Sangh may not be involved actively in the state poll campaign might create shortage of infantry for Shah.
Mumbai Marathi Mansachich
The Congress(I) - NCP government had said that Marathi manoos in now a minority in the state capital. Many new residential complexes which are coming up, specifically ban non vegetarian's from booking a flat, even if they can afford the same. A community is given preference over others. And all these are majority BJP sympathisers. This will work against the Team Shah in the state election. Shiv Sena was born in the heart of the city in Dadar for the Marathi Manoos. The same sons of soil agenda is carried forward also by the Raj Thackeray led MNS. Hence these things can lead to division of votes which will have effect on Shah's capture Mumbai dream.
Marathi Speakers
Of the total 6 MPs from the maximum city, BJP fought and won on 3 seats. But only one of them is Marathi. Other than Modi, BJP doesn't have any powerful orator for their campaign. After Pramod Mahajan, the party couldn't produce a strong leader from the state. On the other hand even Uddhav is not so great like his father Balasaheb Thackeray. But still the party which has attracted maximum crowds for it's rallies since it's formation, Sena will have huge power packed campaign with old horses groomed by Balasaheb himself, will be out for addressing rallies alongside party chief Uddhav. Also Modi will be addressing all his rallies in Hindi, leaving 2-3 lines in Marathi, which may not work much in the parties favour like it did in case of General Elections. As against all of them, Raj Thackeray is the powerful orator in the state today, even powerful than Modi. He attracts huge crowds on his own like his uncle. So,Team Shah will suffer due to shortage of strong speakers.
Strong MNS
MNS supported the BJP's PM candidate during the LS polls. It also asked it's voters to vote for Late Gopinath Munde who had asked his help in the election. Raj Thackeray didn't succumb to the demands of NCP leader Dhanajay Munde to stage a candidate against Gopinath Munde. The party went into the General Election without it's official manifesto. But inspite of the defeat the rally it held by MNS Chief at Sion to show muscle, where Raj Thackeray declared himself the CM candidate of the party. It gave a huge boost to his party's cadre. Also the most discussed Blue Print for the state is stated to be released by him later this month. Even if Uddhav was made the political heir of Shiv Sena, everyone knew then it was Raj who was favorite for the party's top post. NCP chief Sharad Pawar had also warned his workers not to take Raj lightly as he has created the party on his own power and not received it as inheritance. So Raj Thackeray will be the biggest hindrance in the Team Shah's dream project to conquer Mumbai.
Considering these things, out of the many, it is not feasible for Team Shah to disturb the alliance at this juncture when the model code of conduct will begin in few days time. Even if the current surveys give BJP alone a full mandate, the campaigning is yet to begin. The party can ask for more seats but should not turn down it's own ally's. This might create a negative image which will only benefit current the ruling power in the state. Hope the sources in the articles are proven to be fake and the Mahayuti stays intact. Else it will be a suicide mission for the BJP to go against it's oldest partner.
-SR
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.