In these extraordinary times, concentrating on an election result was surely not on the agenda. The Delhi HC was hearing petition on the allocation of oxygen to the state of Delhi. The Centre government is still not able to provide concrete answers to the point blank questions asked by the court. The HC is specifying that Delhi, not being an industrial city, hence it does not have it's own supply of oxygen. So the court had ordered the Centre, again, to provide the allocated quantum of oxygen to Delhi. And in between all this, five state elections were going on. The external affairs minister had on record said, "You don't stop elections in a country like India."
Generally, these election result days are considered to be a festival for news channels. And in the way the ruling party in Centre had hyped the recent Bengal state election, crossed all Laxman rekhas, broke all Covid 19 rules and did what not, just to get a shot in power. This day would have been same as it was back in May 2014 for television media. But, surprisingly, few of them had opted out to not do the result day coverage. So this meant no hashtag wars on Twitter, no unnecessary blaberry on TV screens, no 'he/she said this..what you want to reply'.
Now that the storm has settled, I just thought to drop by on Twitter to get a jist of what happened. As I was scrolling around, I came across a tweet by a media person in which he summed up the Bengal poll results from his perspective. The tweet just said, "West Bengal will be the BJP's Stalingrad."
Intersting, isn't it? as Yoda would say. The World War II metaphor being used against the current ruling party. Some followers of the media person went too far ahead and commented that they are now waiting for Nuremberg. Well, that didn't amuse me becauase I know it is not happenning. But I thought of just going into some detail to see if Bengal's poll result are actually Centre's Stalingrad or will it turn out to be another Valkyrie in long term perspective.
After a morale boosting victory for the BJP in the General Elections of 2019 in the state of West Bengal, where from 2 MP's they rose to 18 seats. The party leadership surely must had started dreaming to conquer the CMO in Kolkata. But one thing every analyst, most of the journalist and experts misinterpret is that, general election and state election are different. Because people always vote differently when it comes to Centre Government and State Government.
So, when the air over Bengal poll results cleared, the statistic said that TMC had won 212 seats of the possible 294 in the state. While the 56" chest party members, who were shouting since their 2019 General Election victory that their party will cross 200, had to settle for 77. The TMC was not only able to withstand the entire BJP/RSS machinery who had used their full might and power including all the tricks of trades like Saam, Daam, Dand, Bhed. But they also increased their tally by 1 when compared to the 2016. Ofcourse, the only setback was the defeat of Mamata Banerjee. She was standing from Nandigram, which apparantely is the same place from where she rose to popularity. One of here closest aide had became a turncoat and joined the opposition bandwagon.
Though, this defeat will not have any impact as she has already taken oath as CM. Constitutionally, she will have to get herself elected to the lower house or upper house of the assenbly in the next 6 months. Also, for BJP this isn't any defeat. As they have gained the Leader of Opposition post with 77 seats. That is 74 higher than their previous performance of 3. So what exactly did they loose? Let us try to break it down.
Moral Right
In the midst of pandemic, when the attention of the Centre government should be focusing on how the virus does not spread further. The PM and their ruling party gave plenty of reasons to make sure they become super spreaders. The huge rallies, the road shows had become the hotspots. And their arrogance was also on display, when they were preaching the country to stay at home or maintain social distance while the PM was boasting about his rallies by explaining how there isn't an inch of space for someone to stand. The Centre was also suggesting states to not enforce lockdown even as India's tally was crossing 4 Lacs daily with death count now breaching the 4000 mark. This hypocrisy basically made the centre lose the plot morally who had already declared victory against the war on pandemic back in February. Inspite of deaths, PM did not stop campaigning almost till the end, which showed the government had no intention to fight the pandemic but only on how to grab power.
World Media Coverage
With the national media only potraying the Centre's definations, asking questions only which they are asked to put forward, reality stayed far away from people. However now, not reporting the exact figures of Covid data came in forefront when world media such as AFP or BBC started covering the real face of this devil (Corona). The true story of oxygen shortage, crematoriums overflowing, BJP playing with people's lives in non-BJP states by delaying or declining helps also came on record. No matter how much they tried to cover, this time all their lies failed. The veil is coming off. For the first time since 2014, the Centre's ruling party was on back foot and they realised this pretty well. Now the world was talking about the 2nd most effected country by Covid.
Foreign Policy Failure
After declaring that India had won the war over the pandemic, the government did not even consider or put forward the blue print on plans of how they will be vaccinating the 140 crore population. Instead, the ruling party had started plans of making the PM a vishwaguru by sending vaccines to around 70+ countries. Come May 2021. India neither has stock of vaccines, nor have they placed sufficient orders for the same. There is nothing but politics going on between the government and vaccine manufacturers to just cover up this failure. We are now witnessing crowds at vaccination centres, people picking up fights which is resulting in chaos. The drugs needed to treat the patient too are not available.
Judiciary entering into governance
Looking at the current state of affairs, many high courts in the country along with Supreme court have taken suo moto cognizance of this matter and started questioning the governments functioning. From giving a earful to the Election Commission for the Bengal fiasco by saying murder trials should be run for these grave mismanagement or pressuring Centre to show their plan of action and also warning them to not force the courts to take strong steps. The people were finally able to see through the veil of lies. With no satisfatory answers or no concrete plans on how to deal with this brutal 2nd wave, the judiciary brought the real face of government in front of the people.
States losing patience
With the states being left on their own to fight the pandemic, the Centre was not helping in anyway but surely was creating multiple obstacles. So be it reducing supply of oxygen or keeping procurement of vaccines or important medicines with themselves among other. They crossed a line when the Centre passed a law relating to the state of Delhi which gave more powers to Lieutenant Governor over the elected governement. As consistently, AAP has been decimating BJP in Delhi state polls. So all of this resulted in states losing patience. This was visible when the Delhi CM went live during the call with the PM by breaking protocol as the call was supposed to be only between the PM and CMs. The Maharashtra CMO pointed it in the media that they received a reply from PMO saying PM being on election rally, they will receive reply after he returns. Even the Jharkhand CM said on record that PM only speaks, he does not listen to anyone. Not even the CMs. So, state governments, who were busy tackling the pandemic were being forced to fight these non essential battles, which the people were starting to notice.
However, it will be wrong to conclude that Centre's way of handling the pandemic resulted in BJP defeat in the recent state polls. From a 2 member party in legislative assembly in Bengal, BJP will now have 77 legislators along with opposition leader post. The BJPs gain in Bengal meant Congress and Left front's pain. With 212 + 77, TMC and BJP share 291 out of the 294 legislators in the assembly. If that is not good result than I don't which non earthly parameter are you using to judge the results. Surely, they got routed in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. And that is because of the traditional North Vs South war which is going on since the nation formation. BJP has always been an outsider here.
Some analyst now have already started writing theories on how Mamata can be the face of a third front against BJP in the Centre. Or how she may still have to win in 2026 and decide here successor in state before she can take the plunge as national leader. But personally, if you ask me, a third front is not at all viable. It will all depend upon how the Congress leadership looks at these results. Remember, there are only two parties in the country who have ground level resources across the nation. So it is the Congress who has to take the lead to stitch the UPA back and allow regional leaders to take centre stage. For now, it is a distant dream.
So this, now, brings me back to the comparison between the journalist opinion and mine about the Bengal elections. I think Stalingrad defeat had hit the Axis powers very badly, be it physcologically or financially. They were forced to withdraw from the then USSR. History judged invasion of Soviet Union as the biggest blunder of Hitler. But when we look at the Bengal State results, here, BJP has made their grip more stronger on the state politics. They will be taking Centre stage. Even if they may not have a majority to puncture TMCs plans. But they surely can make themselves heard, loud and clear, on the correct platform. So, for now it seems apt for me to term it is another Valkyrie. Because the Supreme leader image is still intact. And peoples memory is very short.
But trust me, if you tell me to cut all these calculations, logic and facts and just ask me on which side I really want to be? It will be Stalingrad.
-SR.
PS: Unfortunately, Maharashtra citizens have failed to guage the difference and hence have always mixed state polls and national polls. This is the only reason why Maharashtra does not have a strong regional party in the state. Yes, we have a family named Thackeray who are associated with two different party's with regional roots. But both leaders of these party's had to switch over to national agenda each time to appease the state electorates. The Gujarati Asmita worked for Modi in his home state, Bengali Asmita campaign gave Mamata her third shot at CMO, Bihari vs Bahari brought Nitish to CMO inspite of all the flip flops. Even Tamil Nadu saw a new Dravidian icon in MK Stalin as his DMK took charge of the state after 10 years. And the list will go on with the BJD in Odisha or Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab, TRS in Telanagana etc. But Maharashtra has always been either a Congress state or a BJP state be it under their direct rule or as primary support.
PPS: May The Force Be With You!
