February The Tenth, 2015 has carved its place in history in golden words. A day when the unexpected happened. The unfathomable became reality. It again changed the definitions of politics in the country. David had defeated Goliath. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief Arvind Kejriwal has brought back his party,
almost like a phoenix, after the last year disastrous Lok Sabha elections. AAP got a landslide victory in Delhi Assembly Election with 67 seats out of the total 70. BJP can adjust themselves in a Auto Rickshaw with 3 whereas Congress was asked not to take any efforts of coming to the assembly. With such a stupendous, enormous result few things which comes to ones mind is How did they do it?, What type of politics they represented to score such a huge victory? What happened to the Modi Tsunami? and last but no the least When will the Congress stop chanting 'Gandhi-gandhi' in the face of defeats after defeats together? But before we start searching answers to these core questions, we need to go back a bit in the year of 2011 from the days of India Against Corruption Movement led by Team Anna in order to understand the backdrop of these historic elections.
AAP was formed after breaking away from the India Against Corruption Movement spearheaded by anti graft crusader Kisan Baburao 'Anna' Hazare in 2011. The movement was primarily against the then UPA governments corruption scandals which were coming out almost every alternate month with figures going into lakhs of crores, huge loss to the exchequer. It attracted massive support from all sections of the society. With increasing number of crowds in the Ramlila Maidan the populairty of movement slowly started spreading from Delhi to other parts of the country. Some paper promises where made by the UPA, inorder to break the fast of Anna Hazare and the entire team who were on fast unto death for JanLokpal. After the strike was withdrawn, Team Anna then started deciding future course of action. Anna Hazare never wanted to come in politics. Whereas a group led by
Arvind Kejriwal wanted to foray in the field, as they were of the belief
that to solve the problems pertaining to existing system we have to be
part of the system.By the end of 2012, differences in Team Anna were out in the open. Hence AAP was formed in October 2012.
The formation itself invited lot of criticism from the media. But people supported them as it was a faction of a peoples movement where the poeple themselves had participated in order to bring the change in establishment. Hence people imposed faith in Arvind Kejriwal and the same was visible in the December 2013 assembly election results. AAP won 29 seats, only second to BJP who won 31. During the campaign, Kejriwal gave an open challenge to 15year CM of Congress Sheila Dixit that he will fight on the same seat which she will select for herself. Kejriwal did score this moral victory by defeating the CM but final outcome however was a clear hung assembly.
LS elections were round the corner. Hence BJP was not interested in forging any alliance with a party which is alien to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Therefore they refrained from forming the government and opted for sitting in the opposition. BJP considered to be traditional Congress rival. Hence they coming together was deemed impossible by all sections of the media.The pressure was now on AAP as Congress had given unconditional support to them. Basically the Congress was trying to come in good books of people in the backdrop of the massive campaign launched by Modi led BJP.
In such a dilemma, Kejriwal again went to the people. He decided to undertake a referendum on whether AAP should take Congress support and form the government or should they sit in opposition. People gave them a positive signal and hence Arvind Kejriwal became the CM of Delhi. The partys main promise was to introduce strong Lokpal in Delhi. However it lost the vote in the assembly as the Congress and BJP did not support the legislation, for reasons well known to all, Kejriwal resigned from the post of CM thus putting the assembly in suspended animation. The 49 days government had taken many steps like introducing a corruption helpline, inspecting public schools, undertaking audit of electricity companies for charging higher tariff, providing drinking water etc. But the main intention to resign from the state government was to capitalize the massive support it received in Delhi and replicate it in other parts of the country. Hence AAP decided to fight 434 out of the 543 Parliamentary seats in the Lok Sabha (LS) election and like the face to face battle with Sheila Dixit, Kejriwal decided to contest from Varanasi, constituency of BJP PM candidate Narendra Modi.
In the Narendra Modi led juggernaut, BJP won a landslide victory with 282 seats bringing back the single party government tradition in Parliament after 30 years. Modi also defeated Kejriwal conveniently to take charge of South Block with a massive mandate of 336 to the NDA thus disqualifying all others from the Leader of Opposition Post in the lower house, also after 30 years. AAP lost majority of it's candidates deposits. But a blessing in disguise was they won 4 seats in Punjab thus getting recognition as state party in another state after Delhi. There was another positive factor for them in this election in the state of Maharashtra. Raj Thackeray led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, a recognized state party and a giant killer in 2009 LS and Vidhan Sabha elections, had commented about AAP fielding candidate in the state saying, 'We don't need AAP, here we are Baap.' But in the final outcome, AAP had more percentage of vote share then MNS. After this defeat the AAP machinery woke up from the dream.
BJP was not ready to hold elections in Delhi as it had four other state to concentrate it's machinery, Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand, Jammu & Kashmir. Hence they were trying their best to horse trade some of the MLAs from the AAP and Congress to switch over to attain the magic figure of 36. One AAP MLA, Vinod Binny, did left the party and joined BJP. But still the magic figure could not be achieved and hence BJP kept the state in suspended animation as it concentrated on other states while PM Modi was concentrating on foreign trips. Arivind Kejriwal and AAP MLAs made repeated request to the Lieutenant Governor Najeeb Jung about BJP delaying the electoral process and about the horse trading of MLAs. However it all fell in deaf years. Finally the Supreme Court had to intervene and the dates of election were declared of the first week of February.
After victories in three states and respectable performance in J & K, BJP was finally ready for polls in Delhi. As the Supreme Court order came, Election Commission announced the dates and then began the highly intensified campaigns by all the parties. For BJP, Delhi was a matter of prestige, thought the end result meant a complete rout of the party in the state. The figures were so massive that AAP was marginally away from getting 100% seats in the assembly. Where earlier they were dependent on a hypocrite, opportunist party like the Congress to run the government. After this result they will call the shots in the state for the next five years just like BJP can in the Lok Sabha. So this bring us now to our core questions.
HOW DID THEY DO IT?
A step backwards is two steps ahead. That's how Arvind Kejriwal began his election campaign for the 2015 Assembly Elections. Even before going to the people for asking votes he apologized for quitting the previous government. The opposition and the media had taken this and made it a huge election debate during the Lok Sabha. The BJP giving Kejriwal names like bhagora, AK-49 etc. Therefore in order to shatter that negative image created around AAP, he admitted his mistake humbly of going national and said that the party will now concentrate first on the state of Delhi. Here it seems most of the battle was won by the AAP, as the others in the race had their campaign arsenal full with arrogance, money power, muscle power, threatening voters, horse trading etc.
After the new government was sworn in the centre, it was expected to announce Delhi state election along the other state polls in the period of October - December. However Centre's delay came as a blessing for Kejriwal. In that period, people forgot the resignation stunt of Kejriwal and started concentrating on promises made by BJP during the LS elections. Therefore with an army of dedicated volunteers and a massive social media push, AAP had set out to change the entire political landscape in Delhi. People voted for AAP because they had not let the
voter out of sight and done intensive groundwork - from meeting voters
door-to-door to assuring them that they have their act together this
time. Kejriwal and Co. did endure many criticism from their own supporters
over resigning in haste and yet they kept in touch with underprivileged
communities, helping to rebuild slums, and offering a range of services
including legal advocacy through its stream of volunteers.
AAP was criticized to much extent by the BJP. Hence they decided to play as the much abused victim with elan. Just like, 'Abki Baar Modi Sarkar' worked for BJP during the LS elections. 'Paanch Saal Kejriwal' was well timed and has worked pretty much well for AAP. It summed up the entire campaign of the party. Arvind Kejriwal, like last time, will be the CM candidate of the party. The party will not resign like before, hence creating a vacuum in the establishment halting all work in the state. The party will be less in agitation mode and will concentrate more on governance.
Unlike PM Narendra Modi who rarely brings himself up to be asked two back to back questions in a press conference, Kejriwal answers questions to news anchors with utmost simplicity and fluency. No anchor gives Kejriwal or any other AAP leader an easy time during interviews. But the sheer determination of AAP leaders provoked huge admiration in all spectrum of voters. Instead of being rhetoric or getting angry while replying questions Kejriwal answers them with an assurance that borders on rudeness which has worked as an asset to him as well as the party.
Instead of using the communalism - secularism card in the poll campaign, Arvind Kejriwal preferred to use the bijli-paani playbook. Rejecting the support given by Shahi Imam of Jama Masjid Bhukari, separated them from BJP-Congress. BJP tried to polarise this subject while Congress campaign contained only secularism rhetorics. This separated AAP from these two principal challengers as they were talking about the basic needs of the people.
AAP leaders always interact in language which is easily understood by the people and which they find comfortable to interact with them. Instead of giving orders or sending messages through close door press meets, AAP prefers to be within the crowd. They are easily accessible to answer questions of the people through the Jan Sabhas.
Another strong point the AAP had was their extensive research about the demography of the entire state. The party was always ready with required relevant data and hence they were in a position to give convincing answers to every question asked. This also helped them into better decision making and also created an impression of being someone
who knows what he is talking about.
Compared to other parties, AAP kept a check on arrogant behavior of leaders. Even after winning such a massive mandate, Kejriwal urged his party worker not to become complacent or lose touch with the voters. Else people will give us the same verdict which BJP and Congress have received today.
These were few, among others, factors that helped AAP to bounce with a 95% majority in the assembly and halt the Modi juggernaut. They proved the fact the Narendra Modi is not invincible and he can be defeated.
What type of politics they represented to score such a huge victory?
AAP represents politics of anti-politics. Since inception AAP was never into religion, caste politics. None of their campaign ever represented this type of politics. The members joining the party are from working class population, professionals, post graduates who had preferred to quit their careers to play a part in making India a better place. I remember a quote of Arvind Kejriwal made during the 2013 election campaign, 'We are first class citizens, governed by third class politicians.' The party always talked about the basic necessities of people. And in achieving these things, religion, caste never has helped any one till date. The party made the people aware of the practical situations instead of living in hypothetical world created by politicians to make them a vote bank. In their previous tenure AAP tried to remove the VIP culture thus reducing the gap of elected representative and voters. Transparency was brought in party funding thus creating confidence among the people. Rejecting corporate funding was one of the big step taken by AAP. Kejriwal always said, that such corporate funding gave rise to crony capitalism. The party also did not allow two people from the same family to hold any post in the party. This kept the single family politics out of scope. They defied all the rules of traditional politics in the country hence paving way for dawn of new era in Indian Politics.
What happened to the Modi Tsunami?
This a biggest question of introspection to the BJP who is in power currently in the Centre. The same Modi wave which gave BJP a landslide victory in LS last year suddenly has come to a jolting halt. Modi charishma also helped in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana and J & K thus turning it into a Modi tsunami. Every election won by BJP, post LS, was credited to this Modi wave. But when it comes to todays defeat, BJP not interested in blaming the Modi wave. Why not bringing his name when the party is routed completely in the state? Even after deploying lakhs of swayamsevaks, pracharaks from RSS, 120 MPs, entire top brass of BJP, CMs of BJP ruled state, huge amount of expenditutre and all they got in the end is 3 seats, which seems perfect as they can travel to the assembly sessions in a single auto rickshaw. So what went wrong?
Delhi was never a BJP stronghold in the first place, with the 2013
elections leading BJP to victory on an anti-Congress vote,
rather than a pro-BJP. Immediately after that the party won all the seven seats in Delhi during the LS and took charge of the Central Government. However the party seems to have lost touch from their voters at ground level. It was proved when their CM candidate, Kiran Bedi, herself said in the post result interview that Krishna Nagar (her constituency) is so dirty that it would have taken her two months to clean it. It shows the incompetence of the elected BJP MP from that area. After back to back victories in other states post LS, the party was
clearly complacent and was of the belief that Modi's speeches are enough to
bring back the voters. Plus BJP always seems to be on election mode and writing speeches after speech either in country or during the foreign visits. This took the party away from it's core voters who elected them to power in May last year.
BJP, since LS election has set a trend of declaring their PM candidate or CM candidate before the elections. But this time they delayed the process. During 2013, BJP had earlier potrayed Vijay Goel as their leader. However when AAP declared Kejriwal as their official CM candidate, a clean face, BJP was forced to back out and introduced Dr. Harshavardhan as their leader. This time after bypassing all the views of the workers and other leaders the top brass of BJP brought in Kiran Bedi in the final days of January and was straight away named as the CM candidate. This step had angered many workers in the hierarchy and brought the morale of party cadre down. The leaders who have been working for years were sidlelined and a new unknown face was given the command. Many were upset and the internal disputes were clear in the open. In the initial days many said this was the masterstroke by BJP. However this itself turned out to be the blunder which later turned into a disaster. Even Kiran Bedi after losing her seat in Krishna Nagar, a stronghold of BJP, said it's not my defeat but BJPs. She also said she did not had to pay a single amount to be declared as the CM candidate, which clearly implies that the states in which the candidates didn't mention this had some quid pro quo.
The 10 lakh suit of PM Modi during the visit of USA President was a completed disaster. Modi took pride in calling himself PradhanSevak of the country. And suddenly this Pradhansevak became a rockstar. His speeches outside the country might have attracted crowds but has done little to fill the stomachs of the hungry back in our home. If at any one benefited from all this was the rich business class who always accompanied him on these foreign tours.
Every political party must understand one simple fact. The urban voter is very much restless. If you miss your targets you are surely going to be rejected the next time. The states in which BJP scored victories had higher amount of rural voters. Hence it was easy to polarise them in the names of caste, religion or by taking names old icons of different castes. But it was not possible in Delhi. The BJP after result tried to hide under the cloak by saying what was mass opinion during 2013 polls that People in Delhi wanted Modi as PM and Kejriwal as CM. If that is the case then this was 14 months back. And then BJP had won 32 seats, if not the majority. But the sudden drop from 32 to 3 cannot be explained in that one popular year old belief. The result clearly speaks that people have out rightly rejected all the parties and have given a full mandate to AAP.
Immediately after the BJP came to power the Sangh parivar outfits began their action in full swing. It was as if development agenda used by Modi during the campaign was just a cloak to cover the actual Hindutva agenda. The comments made by BJP MP Yogi Adityanath of installing Ganesh Idols in mosques or invoking Ramzada vs Haramzada comments by Union Minister of State Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti. Sakshi Maharaj appealing the Hindus to give birth to four children in each household to tackle the Muslim population or the Ghar Wapsi campaign started by the RSS was all visible in the broad day light. What was more visible was PM Modi not being apologetic and not able to curb them inorder to carry out development agenda as promised to the voters. Recently the attacks on churches in Delhi was also a point taken in consideration while the debate started by the Hindu Mahasabha to declare Nathuram Godse as a martyr and build temples in his names. All these, unfortunately, went unnoticed in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand as well as J&K. But Delhi gave them a staunt reply. Mostly because the voting demographic of Delhi and other states are
vastly different. Delhi is more cosmopolitan with a fair share of urban
voters. It can be safely assumed that a large chunk of Delhi's voters
are bound to be offended by the offensive Hindutav rhetoric which seems
to be on a popularity curve following the BJP's ascension to power. They are also
the kind of voter to analyze the promises made by Modi as opposed to the
ones delivered in the past months he has been in power.
The politics of rhetoric might be successful in other states but not in Delhi. The Delhi voter is not the same as the average voter in a West Bengal or
Bihar or UP. The political alternative to BJP in these states are all in the same kettle, practicing the same old divisive politics and accusing each other. Take for example in Bengal, Mamta Banerjee cannot stop pandering the Muslim vote bank. So the other parties in other states. They practice the same old school caste, religion specific
politics. This was rejected in Delhi. People mandate clearly speaks we are not interested in caste, religion, or any ghar wapsi. Give us our basic neccisties to survive and employment to earn our living. Rest is irrelevant in this century. Modi needs to be clear that development agenda and right wing politics cannot go hand in hand.
BJP leaders arrogance also played a vital role in tilting the balance towards AAP. The walkout of their leader from the news debates when questioned about the states infrastructure. The mockery of Swach Bharat Abhiyan by Shazi Ilimi. The personal jibes and attack made by BJP leaders on Kejriwal and Co. Many called him bhagora even naxalite. The Minister of State for Commerce and Industry, Nirmala Sitharaman calling Kejriwal chor. All these made BJP lose ground and also tarnished their image in the eyes of voters who were given a massive mandate in May last year.
The current BJP Chief Amit Shah and PM Narendra Modi are seen practising and implementing on ly two types of politics. Former is an ardent follower of using the polarisation card while latter represents identity politics. What they fail accept that Indian voter has now risen above these petty areas. They have a simple question in their minds, 'Main tumhe vote dunga tum mujhe kya doge.' People demand answer. Hope this result halts their honeymoon period and brings them out of limbo to start working instead of just campaigining. Else it wont be far when BJP will also be told to sit at home.
When will the Congress stop chanting 'Gandhi-gandhi' in the face of defeats after defeats together?
Sometimes I wonder whether is it relevant to even given them space here in my blog. Such an irrelevant party it is that inspite of ruling the state for 15 years all they could retain in the end was a big Zero. A family business run by Mother Son duo. Sitting comfortaly in their houses in the face of defeat after defeats. After every election one scene is common, workers standing with placards, Priyanka lao Congree bachao. No matter what ever happens and no matter how may more defeat they face in future nothing will ever change in the grand old party.
When we sum up the election result, it is indeed historic. Even the media couldn't predict such a massive rout of BJP. Though Exit polls gave full majority to AAP still these figure were beyond anyones imgination including AAP. But I will still be skeptical about the future. There is very thin line between Democracy and Autocracy. With such huge mandate also comes huge responsibilities. Modi critics will be having a gala on his defeat but the result can offer little comfort to Arvind Kejriwal as he will soon begin to feel the brunt of impatience of the voters.
-SR.
