BJP betrays MNS

BJP has decided to part ways with MNS for the upcoming Mayor elections of the Nashik Municipal Corporation (NMC) as the term of current Mayor Yatin Wagh (MNS) comes to an end. The reason for snapping ties, among others, is BJP claiming that the MNS did not give, as promised, the chairmanship of the all powerful Standing Committee which is responsible for the financial transactions of the civic body. They have decided to support the nomination of Shiv Sena candidate in order to please their alliance partner ahead of Vidhan Sabha polls slated for next month. Another setback which MNS received was 2 corporators of the party have decided to switch their loyalty to Shiv Sena.

The MNS-BJP alliance was formed in February 2012 after the election results were declared. MNS, under the strong leadership of Raj Thackeray, won 40 seats in the 122 member NMC to become the single largest party. Whereas Shiv Sena-BJP, who fought together, won 19 & 14 seats respectively. The Congress-NCP combine won 35 seats, thus leaving no party or alliance attaining the magical figure of 62.

BJP has decided not leave any stone unturned before the Model Code of Coduct kicks off for Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha elections. Inspite of fighting election together with Shiv Sena in 2012, BJP decided to support MNS then, as Raj Thackeray was in the good books of Nitin Gadkari. Also Raj was invited by then CM of Gujarat Narendra Modi for his swearing ceremony in 2011. BJP was then exploring partners other than Shiv Sena in the state in order to gain a upper hand.

However lot of things have changed since the death of senoir BJP leader Gopinath Munde. Earlier there were two teams in the state BJP, one led by Munde and other by Gadkari. But now the new central leadership of the party under the command of Amit Shah has given clear instructions that word of state party unit head Devendra Fadnavis will be final and everyone has to fall in line, indirectly hinting towards Team Gadkari. Snapping ties with MNS is checkmate to Gadkari-Raj friendship.

But for MNS, it will further add to their misery of LS results. The party was completely routed, with 9 out 10 of it's candidates losing their deposits. The voteshare of MNS also came down from 4.06% in 2009 to 1.5% in 2014. The only shining star on the partys CV was the Mayor post of Nashik. Now that too seems to be fading away.

Many reasons seem to be responsible for the current state of the party. During the LS polls, Raj was in two minds till March whether to contest or not. After meeting with Nitin Gadkari who asked him not to contest in the election, Raj has always changed his stand by each passing day creating confusion among the party cadre.

When the party finally decided to contest, the candidates selected were all weak and had no mass reach in their respective constituencies. Plus there was no official party manifesto for the elections. Raj Thackeray himself addressed 35-40 rallies, but all of them were not matching to his own level of oratory. Though the party could strike alliance with the PWP, it didn't bear any fruits.

After the LS defeat, Raj addressed a massive rally in Mumbai and declared that he will be contesting the upcoming state polls and if mandate is provided will lead the party as its CM candidate. It boosted the morale of the party karyakartas. However in a recent press conference in August he backed off from that decision. During LS campaigns in April, on a TV interview, he said the blueprint for the state will be out in August. But till date the same is not released as he keeps on posponing it's release date.

Recently a leader from the transport wing of the party had alleged that Raj Thackeray has time to play with his dogs but not to meet the party karyakartas. MNS, like the ShivSena or CPI, is a cadre based party. They are the whole and soul of the organization. And by ignoring them, Raj is sending a wrong message to the partys rank and file.

Also the party has not been able to create second rung leaders. It is completely dependent on Raj Thackeray. This creates a leadership vacuum due to which other leaders are not able to attract crowds for their rallies.

Though all the above reasons may be valid, one cannot write off MNS completely. The party in power today in Lok Sabha with 282 seats was at 2 in 1984. Under the leadership of Advani then Vajpayee and now Modi the party is rejuvenated. After a massive anti Congress(I) wave of 1977, Indira Gandhi brought the party back to power in 1980. Political scenario in state till June 2013 was not BJP friendly. After the elevation of Narendra Modi as Campaign Chief and then the PM candidate of BJP led NDA, a massive wave was created throughout the nation.

Raj Thackeray has himself been in politics for over two decades. Patience is virtue, which is needed to survive in politics, he has in plenty. Like LS, he is aware, in the Vidhan Sabha polls too BJP will have major say. Hence all masterstrokes will turn out to be failure.

BJP feels they did the right thing today by breaking the alliance but only time will tell its impact. MNS chief reaction on this will be worth watching. But right now he needs to start a No Holds Barred campaign in the state to give his party a breathing space.

PS: In order to avoid any further poaching, MNS has sent it's 38 corporators to Rajasthan. Similarly, NCP has also sent their bunch to Lonavla.

-SR.