Decoding Vidhan Sabha Results

Vidhan Sabha result for 2014 were declared on 19^th October. Regime change, as expected, is about to happen. It’s just the manner in which things took place in the end was not at all satisfying as a Marathi Voter.

Ruling Congress-NCP were reduced to 42 & 41 respectively. The alliance of ShivSena-BJP and other small parties known as Mahayuti was expected to come to power. But in a complete surprise, BJP who broke the alliance came out to be largest party with 122 seats. Whereas ShivSena got 63 seats. The biggest setback in this result was Maharashtra Navnirman Sena was reduced to mere 1 seat while Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen, who contested for the first time, won 3 seats. Let’s get into a bit detail of this historic election result.

Breakup Yuti

The 25 year long alliance between Shiv Sena & BJP was broken on seat sharing issue for mere 2-3 seats and both decided to go into polls, for the 1^st time in over two decades, on their own. This event, though, did not happen in a fortnight. Post Lok Sabha result, BJP was trying to flex its muscles in all states by banking on the Modi wave. After LS result, Narendra Modi elevated his right hand man Amit Shah for top post of BJP. By this, he fully controlled the government as well as the party organization. Immediately after the LS polls, there were certain By-Polls on assembly seats in North India. In these, BJP performance was average. Modi being the PM wasn’t there for campaigning. Hence all these were fought under the leadership of Amit Shah. The result had some impact on his credibility to lead the organization which was at all-time high after winning 72 seats for the party in Uttar Pradesh of the possible 80 and getting full majority in LS with 282 seats. Hence Maharashtra & Haryana polls was an acid test for the partys Modi Wave and a matter of prestige for Amit Shah to cement his position as the Top Leader.

Fake Sympathy

I did explain in one of my previous write up how Shah had asked his party members to target Mumbai and take it from the hands of Shiv Sena. As he who holds the key to rule Mumbai, rules Maharashtra. So the seat sharing meeting were just a façade. They were just looking for an appropriate time to break the alliance, get public sympathy and go alone in the polls with PM Narendra Modi as their star campaigner. There are in total 288 assembly seats in Maharashtra. Now, BJP broke alliance with the Shiv Sena on 25^th of September. 27^th was the last day to fill up the nomination forms of the candidates. If BJP leaders were saying that they tried till the end to reach up for an arrangement and it all happened all of a sudden. Then within a day they got candidates for all 288 seats? Isn’t that a Guiness Book record achievement, incase a criteria is allotted for such event? Every party has to give ‘A’ form & ‘B’ form to its candidates which are to be filled with the election commission in order to be the official party candidate. So if the events happened all of a sudden, in a day the party distributed those forms to all candidates throughout Maharashtra? Immediately after Lok Sabha polls RSS said they won’t participate in state poll campaign for BJP. And suddenly they change their mind to allow their ground force to work for the party. Nothing was all of a sudden. Everything was pre-planned. And on the last day of the campaign, BJP leader confessed that it was none other than Amit Shah who decided to walk away from the alliance in order to become the senior party in the state so that they can stake claim for CM post.

Imported Candidates

Along with lack of ground force, lack of mass leader in the state, BJP also lacked another important thing. Lack of own candidates. It had to import around 60 candidates from other parties, of which 50 were from Congress-NCP itself. The same people whom BJP accused for corruption in the Vidhan Bhawan for the last 15 years were seen sharing dias hand in hand, while the PM of the country campaigning for them. It was to such extent that, one of the candidates was accused and jailed during the Telgi Stamp Paper scam for 2years. But had the Prime Minister, himself, campaigning for him in his constituency. So what change was PM Narendra Modi talking about? By this policy, you can surely change the ruling flag, but unfortunately same people will be running the government again. It’s like Old Wine in Old Bottle.

DayLight Robbery

The alliance formula set by Late Shiv Sena Pramukh Balasaheb Thackeray & Late Pramod Mahajan was BJP will be elder in Centre elections while Shiv Sena will be elder in state. Hence in the past two decades, BJP never fought above 120 assembly seats. So practically, party has become non-existent in more than 150 seats in Maharahtra. It doesn’t has its party machinery nor any ground force in those constituencies. After the demise of Gopinath Munde the party also lacked a face which has a pan Maharashtra appeal. Hence they needed the Prime Minisiter of the country, CMs of other BJP ruled state, entire central Cabinet, all Gujarats MLAs, MPs, Corporators to campaign in Maharashtra. Since they don’t have anyone of their own. Even on the banners only Modi picture was shown to garner votes. Inspite of being in such a weak situation, the party managed to win 122 seats, for me, is more like a Day Light Robbery

Pawar Trouble

NCP leader Sharad Pawar wanted to enter NDA fold in the Lok Sabha polls itself. But Shiv Sena party president Uddhav Thackeray had opposed his inclusion in the alliance. Hence Sharad Pawar had a deal with Narendra Modi that he should not campaign in Baramati. If NCP is able to win 3-4 seats then he will support the NDA proposed legislations in Rajya Sabha as Congress is still in majority in the Upper House. After the Vidhan Sabha preparation began, NCP supremo played another masterstroke. He had talks with a senior BJP leader in Delhi and asked them if you break alliance with Shiv Sena, within hours I will break alliance with the Congress. Even after the VS result were out and BJP came out to be largest party but short of majority, NCP declared unconditional outside support to form the government. Why is NCP always in hurry to be in the ruling corner? If one looks back into the history of Sharad Pawar, there has never been ethical politics. Only ruling politics. His party has been in power since its inception, either in state or country. Even in this polls when NCP was demanding higher seats from Congress, the latter decided to start the probe of Irrigation Scam. Before the CM could give orders, NCP resigned from the government putting it into minority. Later BJP leaders were calling for dissolving the government and applying President Rule in the state to the Governor. Today the NCP says, we respect people’s mandate and they have said BJP should form the government. Hence we are providing the support so the state gets a stable government. So if they were so concerned about the state then why did they resign at first place forcing upon President Rule on us? Sharad Pawar is mainly worried about Amit Shah. When Modi came in power in Gujarat, Shah started moving his pieces and took control of all co-operatives from the Congress. Today in Maharashtra, NCP runs mainly 60% of the co-operatives be it Sugar mills, Banks, Diaries etc. This clout helps the party to earn votes even when facing grave corruption charges. Pawar knows, if his party is not in power it will start breaking up. Plus there are many other financial transactions taking place which needs the shield of power. Hence to keep it together he needs the oxygen of government, be it Centre or state.

Is Corruption really an Issue?

One thing which the Marathi voter proved in this election is corruption can never be a poll plank in the state. Instead of getting angry, people flaunt the figures of corruption by their leaders with pride. When the Adarsh Society scam surfaced, then CM Ashok Chavan was forced to resign from his post. But the same person, won the only Congress seat in Maharashtra, inspite of facing such grave charges. The then Governor Sankarnarayanan, Congress appointed, didn’t allow probe against Chavan in order to assure a smooth victory ride in LS polls. Even his wife Ameeta Chavan who stood in the Vidhan Sabha election also won her Bhokar assembly seat. Take the case of Ajit Pawar. Protagonist in the 70000crore Irrigation Scam in the state.  Did theatrics of resignation, but no one was appointed in his place. After 2months, himself acquitted him and returned to the Dy.CM post again. Abused the people by making urinating in dam comment. And at the end of the day, he won his Baramati seat with maximum margin in the recent elections. Going by these couple of examples, amongst many, it makes me wonder is corruption really a issue. If same people are to appointed again and again then I guess there is no need of electoral process which again spends thousands of crores tax payers money.

Analysis of MNS

MNS saw it’s all time low in the recent state elections. They were reduced to 1 seat, from the 13 won in 2009. Plus the party which was said to have a strong base in Mumbai, Thane, Nashik belt couldn’t get anything from these urban areas. Especially Nashik was the biggest setback for Raj Thackeray which still has a MNS Mayor. But did the party actually deserve this. Were they so bad as an option to be considered by people compared to the anti-incumbent government or for that matter the Hyderabad based MIM, who won 3 seats & whose victory lap had slogans “Bhaag Hindu Aaya Owaisi”. One cannot deny the fact that as on date, after Sharad Pawar, only Raj Thackeray has a pan Maharashtra appeal. A Fire Brand Leader, Class Orator, Popular among all ages. So what went wrong? Did the party didn’t perform at all with their 13 MLAs or did the people vote according to activities happening in the last 3-4 months before elections. First lets see the work done by MNS.

 -Marathi Compulsory

Ever since I started using mobile phone, there were only two languages available for talking to customer executives; English or Hindi. It was after MNS agitation that all mobile phone operators started Marathi as another optional language. Many liberal thinkers called this petty issues. So why aint these queries raised in the states in South Bharat. They holding up on their language is pride, and if Marathi people talk about the same then it is goondagiri. In my visit to some cities in Gujarat, I use to find trouble even in searching for a General Store. Since all the name boards of shops were in their local language. So when the same law is applied here, people make conclusions of dividing the country. All states were formed according to their local languages. So it is the duty of all citizens to respect the local culture. This change was visible in the state only because of the successful MNS agitation.

 -Toll

This has been the most talking point since 2012. But the strange part in it is the entire sections of media have always cross questioned Raj Thackeray but never ever did the question the authorities, or the incumbent government. Even the principal opposition party in the state never paid heed to this issue. It was MNS which unearthed the massive corruption through toll, how people are being fooled and are merely contributing to ruling parties election fund. In all his rallies, Raj Thackeray explained in detail, how the corruption is going on. Not by just flying arrows in the air, but with proper documents from the appropriate authorities taken via RTI. MNS Chief gave many examples of different toll nakas, the number of which are illegal, the ones which have already expired but collection is on. All MNS activist were sitting on the toll nakas day and night to count the number of vehicles which pass through the toll naka’s daily. The party complied all the data in order to get rough idea of the amount of collection which is made daily and how much time will it take to shut down the toll nakas. With all the complied data when MNS approached court, they always postponed the hearings for months together. Court said since the toll collection started more than 10-15 years ago, time limit to file a case against any corruption is 3 years after the date of beginning of collection. Which implies that corruption has no time limit but to voice against it has a time limit. When MNS Chief met the Chief Minister of the state to highlight this issue, he himself confessed being aware of the wrong doings. But replied that being in an alliance it is not possible to take action else the government will go in to minority. After the first state wide agitation when all MNS activist staged rastta roko in various parts of the state, the government sprung into action and ordered closure of 65 toll nakas which were either illegal or which had expired already. As asked by MNS, government also asked all companies to display the details such as Cost of construction, Amount to be collected, Amount collected as on date, Start Date of Collection, End date of Collection etc on the toll nakas. Even as the Lok Sabha polls came near, CM declared another new policy wherein construction on which Rs.10crore or less is spent, toll will not be applicable. MNS has also asked for increase in distance between two toll nakas should be implemented as per the guidelines of NHAI. When a violent agitation took place in Kolhapur, some opposition parties tried to take credit. But point worth noting is those were the local people of who staged the protest and not any political outfits. It was MNS which first brought into people’s notice the corruption behind this type of road tax. And what people did, was ignore it completely by voting against MNS only because media carried a propaganda against them.

 -Pro Modi or Anti Modi

MNS Chief was the first person throughout the country to propose that Narendra Modi should be the PM of our country. His organizational skills, leadership qualities, pride for Gujarati Asmita, and will power to make things possible made him the perfect CM of his state. This was the only reason why Raj Thackeray also praised him during the Lok Sabha campaign. But some people misunderstood it. His support was for the man and not for the party to which he belongs. The country lacked a strong leader under UPA. Hence Modi was a perfect option to replace and fill that vaccum. Also support doesn’t means he became a blind follower of Modi. When things are wrong one should voice concern regarding the same. Certain things which took place post elections were shocking. As soon as Modi government started business, he first scrapped a project which was suppose to come in the Naval land in Mumbai and shifted the same to Porbandar. Even in November 2013 it was MNS who raised the issue for JNPT. Purposely the development of the port was delayed because it’s business was being transferred to Gujarat. During the Vidhan Sabha Campaign, CM of Gujarat came to Mumbai for a function attended by industrialists. There she made her full speech in Gujarati. Now is Gujarati Maharashtra state language or national language? Also in that speech she openly criticized the Infrastructure of Mumbai, where apparently BJP is control of Mumbai Municipal Corporation. She urged all the business community to pack up from Maharashtra and shift your base to Gujarat where we will give you a red carpet welcome. Not even in his single speech did Modi answered about the comments made by his appointed CM. Here BJP is talking creating employment, but the partys boss home state CM was talking about snatching away all the employment opportunities. Complete contradictory campaign was been carried and sad thing is people did vote for them. So when Raj Thackeray raised these issues he was criticized for changing his stand. I failed to understand where did he actually change his stand. He isn’t a blind bhakt of Mr. Modi. He will speak if some thing is happening against the welfare of our state. He was not all wrong in that. It was just the wrong media propaganda, which changed people’s mind who went against MNS.

 -Contesting Election

Raj Thackeray did mention his reason for not contesting the polls. He is a state leader who has state wide appeal. He is not restricted to any particular constituency. One needs to understand that he is single handedly managing the affairs of the party. He has to draft the agenda, the policies, to head the campaign. He had to tour the entire state as MNS was contesting in over 230 seats. In such case it was never possible for him to concentrate on one constituency. He also faced dilemma in choice of constituency. If he selects A, then what B has did wrong to ignore them.

 -Performance of MNS 13 MLAs

People completed ignored all the statistics which spoke in volume about the performance of MNS in Vidhan Bhawan. In the entire 5 years tenure, MNS legislators raised over 6600 questions in the assembly, highest by any party. MNS ranked 2^nd when it came to proposing new legislations for the welfare of the state. MNS MLA from Sewree, Bala Nandgaonkar was ranked among the top performing MLA in the last concluded assembly.  And yet people ignored each and everyone of them in the recent elections. If Ajit Pawar can win the polls even after being named in the Irrigation Scam, then why couldn’t all clean image, performing MLAs win in the elections.

 -Performance of MNS as organization

MNS karyakartas where among the highest number who faced police lathi charge due to agitation they participated in. MNS was active against the anti-incumbent state government more than the principal opposition parties. It was MNS who was on road when police and media was attacked by Raza Academy Morcha people. Raj Thackeray, in all his speeches during the state wide tour in 2013 spoke in depth about the multi crore Irritgation scam, with all documents and proof. He brought in front of the people the methods in which money was being utilized for sponsoring their electoral campaigns. No other party explained these issues with such details and by giving examples of projects. MNS provided food for all the boys who came to Mumbai for getting a police job, since some boys died during those tests due to lack of food and water. Even the police department thanked the party for providing assistance. Party also supplied water, fodder in draught effected areas. It instilled the Marathi pride in today’s youth which was fading away.

And yet MNS was rejected completely by people to such extent that the party might be de-recognised by Election Commission as a state party and also might lose its election symbol Railway Engine, both of which it achieved in its very first elections in 2009. Results were indeed sad, but now is not the time fir crying over it. It is time for thorough introspection and complete rejuvenation of the party. MNS has it’s ground force, local leaders and a charismatic party chief.

Now that BJP is set to form new government with either Shiv Sena or NCP. All I can hope is we might find some change in the state. If it doesn’t perform MNS is there to keep a check on them even if the party has one MLA.

-SR